美國疾管局預估2014-2015年，未來在利比亞和獅子山爆發伊波拉疫情的病例數

美國疾管局預估2014-2015年，未來在利比亞和獅子山爆發伊波拉疫情的病例數 Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic—Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015 摘要Summary 如果依照目前的伊波拉疫情趨勢持續下去，本週的發病率和死亡率週報（MMWR）預估2014-2015年，未來在利比亞和獅子山爆發伊波拉疫情的病例數，。This week’s MMWR, Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic—Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015, estimates the future number of cases if current trends continue. 該發病率和死亡率週報（MMWR）還根據短報個案病例數做調整估計。The MMWR also adjusts the number of cases based on estimated underreported cases. •美國疾管局估計，2014年9月30日，在利比亞和獅子山，大約有8,000例伊波拉累積病例數，或如果依據漏報的伊波拉病例數做更正，將高達21000例伊波拉累積病例數。By September 30, 2014, CDC estimates that there will be approximately 8,000 cases, or as high as 21,000 cases if corrections for underreporting are made. ◦如果沒有額外的醫療介入或改變喪葬社會行為，美國疾管局估計，到2015年1月20日，在利比亞和獅子山，將有共約55萬例伊波拉病例，或如果依據短報的伊波拉病例數做更正，將高達140萬例伊波拉累積病例數。Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made. •在利比亞的伊波拉累積病例數，目前每隔15-20天呈倍數成長，而在獅子山和幾內亞的伊波拉累積病例數，每30-40天也呈倍數成長。Cases in Liberia are currently doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone and Guinea are doubling every 30-40 days. •要遏止伊波拉疫情，需要將約70％的伊波拉病例，留在伊波拉病毒治療中心接受治療照護，或將這些伊波拉病例留在家裡，或具有提供降低疾病傳播和安全喪葬風險設施的社區收容安置中心。Halting the epidemic requires that approximately 70% of Ebola cases be cared for in Ebola Treatment Units or, if they are at capacity, at home or in a community setting in which there is a reduced risk of disease transmission and safe burials are provided. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/qa-mmwr-estimating-future-cases.html